Our Strategy

Quantitative analysis built on decades of experience. Conviction-weighted signals. 10+ years of backtested performance across four distinct risk profiles.

Quick overview? Visit the home page for summaries. Below are detailed descriptions.

Key Metrics

Timeframe:Long-term (1.5-2 years)
Position Type:Long-only
AI Enhancement:LSTM predictions
Focus:4-year cycles

Exploits Bitcoin's cyclic nature through multi-timeframe momentum analysis and adaptive position sizing. Identifies high-probability entry points during accumulation phases and systematic exits during distribution.

4-Year Cycle HunterLong-term cycle positioning with AI-enhanced signalsAccumulationYear 1-1.5UptrendYear 1.5-2.5DistributionYear 2.5-3.5DowntrendYear 3.5-4Multi-TimeframeAnalysis1H • 4H • 1D • 3D • 1WLSTM AIEnhancement6mo - 2yr predictionSignal TiersL1L2L3Position SizingAutomated Execution Pipeline1Signal2Sizing3Hyperliquid4Execute

AI-Enhanced with LSTM

LSTM neural network analyzes 10+ years of historical data to predict price movements 6 months to 2 years ahead. When highly confident (≥80%), boosts position sizes by 10-20%. When uncertain (<60%), reduces by 15-25% to protect capital. Enhances existing signals without replacing them.

Conviction-weighted signal architecture allocates capital proportionally to opportunity quality. Maximizes returns during bull markets while preserving capital through defensive cash positioning during bear cycles.

Key Metrics

Timeframe:3-7 days
Position Type:Long & Short
Assets:BTC & ETH
Focus:Regime analysis

Multi-asset strategy rotating between BTC and ETH, capitalizing on multi-timeframe price movements. 3-7 day swing positions with long and short capability based on regime analysis. Rotates capital during market downswings while Strategy A is in cash. Advanced momentum and trend analysis with regime detection.

BTC Swing Trader60-day cycle positioning with multi-timeframe confirmationPrice60-Day Cycle TimelineEntryPrice AppreciationExitMulti-Timeframe Confirmation1HEntry Signals4HConfirmation1DTrend Direction3DSwing Context3-7 Day Hold TimeQuick Swing Positions

Each asset (BTC and ETH) has dedicated optimization settings. Full capital efficiency and risk management across all timeframes with regime analysis.

Key Metrics

Timeframe:4-hour swings
Position Type:Long & Short
Leverage:1.0x - 2.5x
Status:In Testing

Combines cycle theory with 4-hour swing trading precision. Advanced cycle detection across multiple timeframes. Can take both long and short positions based on cycle alignment and regime analysis. Cycle-based conviction weighting adjusts position sizing and leverage dynamically.

Cycle EnhancedMulti-timeframe cycle alignment for maximum convictionDaily Cycle3-5 Day WindowsWeekly Cycle3-5 Daily CyclesYearly Cycle52 Weekly CyclesCycle Alignment Multipliers3 Cycles1.5x Multiplier2 Cycles1.3x Multiplier1 Cycle1.1x MultiplierEntry SignalsLC1-LC5Cycle FilteredPosition SizingBase + Multiplier1.1x - 1.5xDynamic LeverageAlignment Based1.0x - 2.5xExit StrategyTrailing Stop • Cycle Target • Momentum Exhaustion

Analyzes cycle windows across daily, weekly, and yearly timeframes with regime analysis. Identifies high-probability entry points where multiple cycles align. Dynamic leverage scaling from 1.0x to 2.5x based on cycle alignment strength and market regime conditions.

Currently in backtesting and optimization phase, preparing for production deployment.

Complementary Timeframes

The 4 Year Cycle Hunter (Strategy A) focuses on long-term accumulation phases, patiently waiting for optimal entry points during cycle lows. Meanwhile, the Swing Trader (Strategy B) actively manages your capital on shorter timeframes, capturing intermediate-term opportunities and keeping your equity working even when the Cycle Hunter is in cash. The Cycle Enhanced (Strategy C) strategy adds cycle-theory enhancement to 4-hour swing trading, dynamically adjusting position sizing and leverage based on multi-cycle alignment.

Enhanced Profit Potential

By running multiple strategies simultaneously, you benefit from comprehensive multi-timeframe analysis that captures opportunities across different market cycles. Strategy B (Swing Trader) generates consistent returns during accumulation phases, Strategy A (Cycle Hunter) positions you for maximum gains during distribution phases, and Strategy C (Cycle Enhanced) adds precision through cycle-based conviction weighting on shorter timeframes.

Superior Risk Management

The multi-strategy approach creates a robust hedging multi-timeframe approach that quant firms would be proud of. Strategy A (long-only) captures upside during cycle accumulation phases, while Strategies B and C (long/short with regime analysis) rotate capital and protect during downswings. When one strategy reduces exposure due to unfavorable conditions, others can maintain active positions or take short positions. This intertwined risk management with state-of-the-art LSTM modeling and confidence-based position sizing ensures your portfolio remains protected while maximizing opportunity capture across BTC and ETH through complementary cycle detection, momentum analysis, regime analysis, and cycle-based conviction weighting.

Cycle Theory Enhancement

The Cycle Enhanced strategy adds a sophisticated layer of cycle-based conviction weighting to swing trading. By detecting alignment across multiple cycle timeframes, it dynamically adjusts position sizing and leverage, capturing opportunities with higher precision when cycle windows converge. This complements the long-term cycle focus of Strategy A and the momentum-based approach of Strategy B.

Below, we'll walk you through exactly how this system works—from signal generation to trade execution.

Quick Overview

1

Signal Generation

Quantitative analysis identifies high-probability entries/exits across multiple strategies with varying conviction levels.

2

Position Sizing

Dynamic capital allocation based on signal conviction level and your selected risk profile.

3

Execution

Automated SPOT trading on Hyperliquid DEX. Your funds remain in your wallet at all times.

4

Monitoring

Real-time performance tracking with Telegram alerts and detailed analytics dashboard.

Want more detail? Read on for a comprehensive breakdown of each step.

How Smooth Brains Works

From signal generation to trade execution, see how our sophisticated system processes every trade with institutional-grade precision and AI-enhanced confidence.

Our strategies run continuously, analyzing multiple technical indicators and market conditions. Each strategy uses its own signal system with varying conviction levels. When conditions align, signals are generated with appropriate conviction ratings that inform position sizing and risk management decisions across the multi-strategy platform.

Quantitative AnalysisMulti-Strategy SystemConviction-Based

Our LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) neural network analyzes 10+ years of historical data to predict price movements 6 months to 2 years ahead. When AI confidence is high (≥80%), position sizes are boosted by 10-20%. When confidence is low (<60%), positions are reduced by 15-25% to protect capital. This doesn't replace our signals—it enhances them.

10+ Years Data6M-2Y PredictionsDynamic Sizing

Before any trade executes, our system performs comprehensive risk checks: outstanding fees, account balance, agent approval, trading status, position limits, and more. If any check fails, the trade is blocked. Your capital is protected at every step.

12 Validation StepsReal-Time ChecksAuto-Blocking

Position sizes are calculated based on signal conviction, your risk profile (DEFENSIVE/BALANCED/OFFENSIVE/YOLO), and AI confidence. Higher conviction signals and higher risk profiles result in larger position sizes, while AI confidence scores provide fine-tuning adjustments to optimize capital allocation.

Signal-BasedRisk-AdjustedAI-Enhanced

Trades execute automatically on Hyperliquid DEX, a leading decentralized exchange. We use 1x leverage (spot-equivalent) perpetuals, ensuring your funds remain in your wallet at all times. Orders are placed as market orders with 2% slippage tolerance, and we verify execution before logging the trade.

On-Chain Execution1x LeverageVerified Fills

We don't log trades until we've verified execution on Hyperliquid. Our system retries up to 5 times (10 seconds) to confirm the order filled. Once verified, the trade is permanently logged in our database with full execution details, including LSTM confidence scores. This creates an immutable audit trail you can review anytime.

Execution ProofImmutable RecordsFull Transparency

Why This System is Different

🤖 AI-Enhanced, Not AI-Dependent

Our LSTM enhances signals but never replaces them. Your trades are backed by proven quantitative analysis, with AI providing an extra layer of confidence.

🛡️ 12-Step Risk Validation

Every trade goes through comprehensive risk checks. If anything doesn't pass, the trade is blocked. Your capital is protected at every step.

📊 Dynamic Position Sizing

Position sizes adapt to signal strength, your risk profile, and AI confidence. Higher conviction = larger positions, lower confidence = smaller positions.

🔗 On-Chain Execution

All trades execute on Hyperliquid DEX, a leading decentralized exchange. Your funds stay in your wallet. Every trade is verifiable on-chain.

Four Bespoke Risk Profiles

Choose the profile that matches your risk tolerance and return expectations. All profiles share the same core strategy with sophisticated position sizing that dynamically adjusts based on signal conviction, AI confidence scores, and your selected risk profile.

Position sizes are calculated using a multi-factor approach: signal conviction level determines the base allocation range, your risk profile applies a multiplier to that range, and AI confidence scores provide fine-tuning adjustments (±10-20%). This ensures optimal capital allocation that balances opportunity capture with risk management.

🛡️

Defensive

12-15% CAGR

Conservative approach with lower volatility. Suitable for risk-averse investors prioritizing capital preservation.

Expected CAGR
12-15%
Max Drawdown
15-20%
Typical Allocation
20-40%
Lower position sizing
Higher cash allocation
L3 (Lionshare) signals only
Maximum capital preservation
⚖️

Balanced

25-30% CAGR

Moderate risk-reward balance. Ideal for most investors seeking steady growth with manageable drawdowns.

Expected CAGR
25-30%
Max Drawdown
20-30%
Typical Allocation
40-60%
Balanced position sizing
Dynamic allocation
L2 (Solid) and L3 (Lionshare) signals
Optimal Sharpe ratio
⚔️

Offensive

40-45% CAGR

Aggressive growth strategy. For investors comfortable with higher volatility in pursuit of maximum returns.

Expected CAGR
40-45%
Max Drawdown
30-40%
Typical Allocation
60-80%
Larger position sizing
Higher allocation
All signals: L1 (Scouting), L2 (Solid), L3 (Lionshare)
Optimized for returns
🚀

YOLO

55-60% CAGR

Maximum aggression. For experienced investors with high risk tolerance and conviction in the strategy.

Expected CAGR
55-60%
Max Drawdown
40-55%
Typical Allocation
80-100%
Maximum position sizing
Near-full allocation
All signal levels including L1 (Scouting)
Highest potential returns
Download Risk Models Breakdown

Ready to Choose Your Profile?

Take the risk assessment to determine your risk profile, then allocate capital and let the AI execute.

Take Risk Assessment